Thursday, March 14, 2019

What are the impacts of increased tariffs on American businesses and consumers?

Recent increased tariffs have had an extremely negative impact on both American consumers and businesses. This result has not been surprising because there is a historical antecedent for the current situation. The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act had had an egregiously bad effect on the economy in the 1930s. Professional economists and business leaders were wary of the pernicious impact that a trade war could have on today's economy. President Donald Trump tried to soothe their concerns by claiming that he could easily win a trade war, but Trump's victory has been elusive and the economic damage has been real. Economists believe the trade war may be costing the country $3 billion per month.
American counties that supported Trump in the 2016 election have typically been hit the hardest. These counties are located in rural areas and are heavily dependent on agriculture. Farmers have suffered a great deal because of the tariffs; American pig farmers have lost out on at least $1 billion in imports. Because of African swine fever in many of its pigs, China has not been able to satisfy its enormous need for pork. Under ordinary circumstances, American farmers would have stepped in by selling more pork to China, but China's tariffs have made American pork too expensive, so other nations have stepped up to meet China's demand for pork products. Soybean farmers and dairy farmers have also been badly hurt by the trade war.
Trump has offered billions of dollars in subsidies to those agricultural areas hardest-hit by the trade war. Trump has called American farmers "great patriots" for their resolve during the trade war. Other American industries that have been adversely affected have not received similar subsidies, however. When the trade war with China finally ends, it will be difficult—if not impossible—for farmers to recover markets lost to competitors. China is forging new trading relationships through its ambitious New Silk Road program.
Not all of the trade conflicts involve China and agricultural interests. There have been lesser trade fights with Europe. One of those prompted the Harley Davidson motorcycle company to move one of its factories to Europe to avoid European tariffs.
American consumers are suffering, too. They pay higher prices for products because of the ongoing trade disputes. Washing machines, for example, are much more expensive today. The American economy is still growing overall, so this somewhat diminishes the negative repercussions of trade wars, but the damage is real and there is even a chance that the dispute will worsen. Indeed, a full-scale trade war with China would be disastrous for both nations and for the world economy.

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