While Atticus had come to realize that Tom was innocent, he also was aware that actual innocence would not be sufficient for Tom to be acquitted, since there was a larger force in play than justice. The mere fact that Tom's skin was a different color was sufficient–in the minds of the jurors–to determine guilt; they were not particularly interested in sitting on a jury where justice might be had for a "colored" man. Atticus believed in his own abilities as an attorney, but he also recognized the depth of the racial prejudice throughout the community in which he worked and did not believe his skills would be sufficient to overcome the prejudice. He knew Tom would not be tried by a jury of his peers, rather, he could only be tried by a white jury with a profound racial prejudice, and that racial prejudice absolutely outweighed any and all other considerations. As a consequence, Atticus knew Tom didn't have a chance–but he tried valiantly anyway.
No, Atticus Finch knew Tom Robinson did not have a chance in the court trial. Atticus is a seasoned lawyer; this was not his first court trial. He understands the law but he also closely understands the people of Maycomb, Alabama. While Atticus is preparing for the case, Scout asks him if they will win it. Atticus replies:
"No, honey."
Atticus is confident he will lose. It doesn't matter how hard he will try, he knows the jury--the people he sees on the streets every day--and he knows they will never acquit a "poor" black man accused of raping a white woman. Atticus knows Tom is innocent and is being wrongfully accused, but he also knows the racism in Maycomb is far too deep to change anything.
Accepting this knowledge, however, doesn't mean Atticus won't try his best to defend Tom. He tells Scout:
"Simply because we were licked a hundred years before we started is no reason for us not to try to win."
Atticus knows Tom's story and he believes his client's case. He defends him well in the trial, but Atticus never loses his confidence. He knows he will lose before the trial even begins, but he will try his best anyway. Unlike his surrounding society, Atticus Finch at least tries to be fair to everyone, regardless of their skin color.
No, Atticus does not think Tom Robinson has a chance. He says this to Scout when she questions him about the case. Scout asks:
Atticus, are we going to win it?
Atticus replies:
No, honey.
Atticus goes on to say that knowing you can't win a case is no reason not to do the right thing. Even though Robinson will be convicted, Atticus knows he is innocent and will do his best to make sure he gets a fair trial. As Atticus puts it:
Simply because we were licked a hundred years before we started is no reason for us not to try to win. . . .
Scout learns that living with integrity is as important as winning, if not more so. After the trial, when Jem is upset that the jury ruled against Robinson, despite Atticus making it evident he couldn't have raped Mayella, Miss Maudie tells Jem that some whites in Maycomb secretly sided with Atticus. Change happens slowly, she says, and in increments. Even though Atticus didn't win, he made an impression on the community simply because he tried, and that helps lead to change.
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