Even though Abraham Lincoln was the incumbent president, victory in the 1864 election was not guaranteed in the months leading to November. The central issue of the election was the continuation of the Civil War and his opponent was former General of the Army of the Potomac, George McClellan. The prolonged conflict generated a myriad of concerns. The war had proven costly, both financially and with loss of life.
The Northern Democrats attempted to utilize the war weariness of the public by nominating someone with a decorated military experience. Previous elections, while the Whig Party still existed, indicated this to be a successful strategy with victories of former presidents Harrison and Taylor. Moreover, the Republican Party was centrally composed of politicians who had been formerly Whigs and General McClellan had been relieved of command by the President on two occasions. This created both added intensity and the decisiveness that the outcome of the election determined the outcome of the war. A Lincoln win meant seeing the war to its completion. A McClellan presidency would likely mean no period of reconstruction involving the 11 Confederate states.
As with any president, the ups and downs in office seldom provide comfort when facing re-election. Lincoln, in the throes of a lingering civil war which much of the electorate believed would last no more than a year and relatively free of bloodshed, found himself doubting his electability in 1864. It was not the first time domestic issues derailed a presidential candidate. And within his own party, prominent Republicans like Salmon P. Chase, Treasury Secretary, and John Charles Fremont, a commander with a poor track record during the Union campaign, were mulling a run at Lincoln or gauging the publics' desire for change in the office of the Commander and Chief.
The Confederate South certainly wanted to see change. The South in the election of 1860 had split the vote between two Democrats, Stephen Douglas in the North and John C. Breckenridge in the South. A third party candidate John Bell was in the election mix as well as Lincoln and his Democratic opposition. In the election of 1860, Douglas and Breckenridge combined for 47 percent of the popular vote, with Bell garnering 13 percent, leaving Lincoln with a governing popular vote of a paltry 40 percent. This most assuredly was on Lincoln's mind three months before the election of 1864 when he wrote, "This morning, as for some days past, it seems exceedingly probable that this Administration will not be re-elected," on a document he asked each of his cabinet members to sign. The document urged them to cooperate with the new administration for the good of the country. Even close political allies and advisers believed the Lincoln administration would go down in defeat.
The dominating issue was, of course, the Civil War. The war was a bloody reminder the problem of slavery had not been dealt with, and slavery remained the core issue of the campaign. Lincoln had made it clear that his intention to see the war end with Union victory, regardless of how long it took to secure the end of slavery. His opposition proposed an immediate end to the war with a grand compromise implying a split in the union of states. Lincoln’s call for a unified nation was in contrast to his opponents who seemed unconcerned about splitting the United States or appeared to be playing to the emotions of voters for political purposes.
Historians generally agree that when the war turned to favor a Union victory over the Confederates, so did Lincoln's political future. Sherman's capture of Atlanta and successful campaign called the March to the Sea inspired voter confidence in Lincoln. Though re-election is never assured, the Lincoln campaign was able to label Confederate supporters traitors to the United States, and in a political turnaround, Lincoln received 78 percent of the popular vote, winning re-election.
The critical issue of keeping the United States whole and slavery were the driving issues of the campaign. Lincoln's margin of victory in the general election was considered by Lincoln to be a mandate to continue the war until the reunification of the country occurred, forever ending slavery.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/lincoln-reelected
https://www.loc.gov/teachers/classroommaterials/connections/abraham-lincoln-papers/history7.html
https://www.nps.gov/liho/learn/historyculture/lincolngrant.htm
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